June 9, 2006

GREG JONES WALKS with his GPS unit through the grapevines at Weisinger’s vineyard in Ashland.. Photos by Orville Hector | Daily Tidings

SOU scientist in demand for wine expertise

Ever wonder which resident of Ashland has the highest media profile? A good guess at the moment would be climatologist Gregory Jones. The Southern Oregon University associate professor is making headlines with his research into the effects of climate change on vineyards and winemaking.

With global warming increasingly evident, Jones’s expertise is being sought by grape growers and wine makers here and abroad. CNN, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Bloomberg Radio are just a few of the media outlets that have contacted Jones in recent weeks.

Climates constantly change, says Jones, but change created by human activities is a “wild card” that calls for new ways of thinking and planning. Evidence suggests that humans are contributing to global warming not only by burning fossil fuels, but also by changing landscapes with construction, paving and mono-cropping.

Greg Jones connect his GPS unit to an antenna during his walk through the grape vineyard Friday May 26.

Jones feels that global warming is too often presented in polarizing terms, with denial at one extreme and overstated “doom and gloom” at the other. Neither is realistic or helpful, in his view.

After growing up in Marin County, Calif., Jones received a bachelor’s degree and a Ph.D. in environmental sciences from the University of Virginia, doing much of his doctoral research in the Bordeaux region of France. Before entering college, he was a chef and restaurant manager. He feels the earlier career helped him develop “multi-tasking” and people skills that have served him well in a busy life of teaching, research, speaking and consulting.

Jones and his wife, Liz, live in Ashland with their six-year-old twin sons, Adam and Curtis. He answered these questions by e-mail before leaving on a research-related trip.

Q. What’s it like doing so many interviews with the national and international media?

A. It hasn’t been easy. While I knew that the research I was doing would be of interest in some academic areas and the wine industry, I did not fully understand how much people identify with, and better understand, climate change when it affects one of their favorite beverages— wine.

Balancing my job as a teacher and administrator at SOU with the thousands of media, industry, and individual contacts and invitations to speak on the topic has been daunting at times. While I could say “no,” and go about my general university work, I feel it is my duty as a scientist to bring awareness to the issue.

Q. Do things tend to get oversimplified? How?

A. Being a scientist and working with the media to get a message out is very difficult. Science is normally a long-running movie, while the media take mere snapshots.

I often find that the media like to deliver certainty, while many of the issues with future climate change have varying levels of uncertainty. All of the complexities and feedbacks in the system are not yet fully understood.

I also find that impacts which scientists are modeling out over the next 100 years are often portrayed as immediate. Part of the problem is that climate change is a very slow process and does not fit into our immediate concerns, or often even the concerns of a single generation.

Q. What is an appropriate way for the average American to think about climate change?

A. Unfortunately, climate change is a slow process that does not convey urgency, and is plagued by uncertainty and a feeling of powerlessness which causes many people not to act. The most basic way Americans should think about climate change is that we should be better stewards of our planet and its atmosphere, and that each individual plays a role in the process.

Q. You have said there will be winners and losers among the world’s great winemaking regions. What do you see happening in the next 50 years in the Napa Valley? The Burgundy region of France?

A. The issue is mostly about adaptation. Wine grapes can only be grown across a fairly narrow range of climates. If a region is on the cooler end of this range, say Burgundy, France, then a warmer environment means reduced viability for cool climate varieties but the potential to adapt to warmer climate varieties.

If a region is already a warm climate, say Napa, any further warming will push the region outside what would be considered ideal for any wine grape variety. It all depends on where a region is today in terms of climate, and the magnitude and rate of the future warming.

Q. Describe the potential of the Rogue and Applegate valleys for growing wine grapes during the next 50 to 100 years.

A. Where regions in Europe have had centuries of experience, our region really only has 40 years of post-Prohibition experience in wine grape production, and is still learning about its potential. However, the growers and winemakers in the area are producing wonderful and creative wines today, and I think they will only get better.

As we develop more knowledge about varieties, clones, and rootstocks, along with how to maximize their potential in our climates, soils, and landscape, the region will clearly stand out. Interest in our area as a wine production region is growing rapidly and will continue to do so in the future.

Q. To what extent do you think that potential will be realized?

A. Probably our biggest challenge is location. We are between two large markets, San Francisco and Portland, and often fall into what has been called a “fly over” or “drive- through,” economically-challenged zone. I believe the best opportunities lie in developing a sound market niche— not trying to be like California or the Willamette Valley— coupled with a destination-based tourism component tied to the natural beauty of the area.

This region has enough suitable land to easily expand to five times its current plantings of roughly 2000 acres and, if the economics and demand hold, will likely do so in the next 10-20 years.

Q. How much do you get involved in your family’s vineyard [Abacela, in the Umpqua Valley]?

A. Not as much as I’d like to. While my wife and I have tried to help where we can— planting, harvesting, wine-making, marketing, planning— Abacela is the result of a dream and hard work by my father and stepmother. While I initially had some reservations about their potential to produce truly world-class wines, they have certainly proved me wrong!

Q. You have said you’re pessimistic about human behavior and capacity for change in the near term. But when talking about your work, you seem energized, even upbeat. Why is that?

A. My pessimism comes from being a realist, where I see how entrenched socially and economically we are in our ways as a society. Also, we typically wait for governments to induce change, then moan and groan when they do, often not re-electing those who push for change if it causes, or we perceive it to cause hardship.

I also doubt that relatively quick, large-scale change in human behavior across countries and cultures is possible today. Furthermore, at our historic and current rates of greenhouse gas emissions, we are inevitably committed to certain amount of climate change, even if we eliminated or stabilized emissions today.

However, I am optimistic that alternative fuel sources or technology will be developed in the near future to the point that they are viable on a large scale.

In my own work, I’m energized because it is so rewarding to do research that people are interested in, and from which I believe more awareness can come.